U.S. Bankruptcy Filing Trends: Outlook for 2016
U.S. bankruptcy filing rates, having dropped as much as 20% per year since 2012, are changing as we move from 2015 into 2016. Based on the assumption (as shown in a previous LeadQ article, Bankruptcy Filing Trends: Using Unemployment Rates to Predict 2015) that bankruptcy filing trends follow the U.S. unemployment rate trend, 2016 filing rates appear to be headed into a period of stability.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the overall U.S. unemployment rate is projected to stabilize throughout 2016 at 4.9%. As of November, 2015, the reported rate is 5.0%. In 2014, the average unemployment rate was 6.2%.
Therefore, total U.S. bankruptcy filings appear to have leveled off and are not projected to drop further from current levels. Seasonal variations in demand will continue, as Q1 filings are typically the strongest and Q4 filings the weakest each year.
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